In what many now describe as a calculated political checkmate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s latest intervention in the Rivers State crisis has solidified the perception of his growing dominance over Nigeria’s political landscape. The once-hopeful resistance led by Governor Siminalayi Fubara appears to have been strategically dismantled, with a reconciliatory handshake masking deeper political compromises.
The president’s announcement that he had “reconciled” Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, drew sharp reactions across the country. For many, it was not a peace accord—it was a silencing. Once seen as a bold challenger to the power of political godfathers, Fubara is now viewed by some as having bowed to pressure.
Fubara’s rise to power was largely orchestrated by Wike. But soon after taking office, he began asserting his independence—sparking a political standoff that threatened to upend the state’s power structure. Many Nigerians, including a significant section of the political elite in Rivers, initially rallied behind Fubara in what seemed to be a people-powered defiance against political puppeteering.
However, the overlooked variable was Tinubu’s deep-rooted alliance with Wike, cemented during the 2023 general elections. According to political insiders, the outcome of the closed-door reconciliation deal is clear: Fubara will not pursue a second term, and Wike will handpick all 23 local government chairpersons in the upcoming council polls.
This revelation has sparked debates not just in Rivers State, but nationwide.
Veteran journalist and justice advocate, Wale Adeoye, expressed disappointment in what he termed poor strategic planning by Fubara’s camp. Writing on a closed media forum, Adeoye said:
“Fubara entered the ring without long-term planning or people-based alliances. If he had mobilized grassroots groups in the Niger Delta, he might have resisted more effectively. Our politicians seek loyalty from individuals, not the electorate. That’s why they fall.”
But not everyone agrees. Ogbodo Abraham, former editor of The Guardian, offered a contrasting perspective:
“To retreat is not to surrender. Fubara was wise. In a political climate this hostile, driven by what I call civilian dictatorship, he had to prioritize survival. We’re not in normal times. He acted with the counsel of seasoned elders who understood what was at stake.”
Ogbodo warned that the real danger now lies in mismanaging the tensions beneath the surface. “My worry,” he said, “is that if these issues are not carefully handled, Rivers could be engulfed in a crisis worse than what we see now.”
Political watchers say the situation is not unlike past political battles between successors and godfathers—seen in Enugu, Anambra, Kano, and Akwa Ibom states. But Rivers, rich in resources and central to Nigeria’s economy, presents a more high-stakes battlefield.
Tinubu, many argue, played his hand like a grand strategist. By allegedly orchestrating a scare involving oil installations and declaring a state of emergency in Rivers, he swung the tide of political sympathy and control. Senate President Godswill Akpabio sealed the deal with a voice vote—avoiding the individual accountability that characterized Ken Nnamani’s Senate in 2006, when the third term bid was crushed.
With control over local government leadership now in Wike’s hands, political observers believe he has effectively cemented his grip on the Rivers State political machinery—a critical tool ahead of the 2027 elections.
The lesson from Fubara’s ordeal? In Nigeria’s power chessboard, survival sometimes takes precedence over heroism. And in this round, the political checkmate belongs to Tinubu.
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