The World Health Organisation says Nigeria must record no further confirmed or probable infections before the outbreak can be declared over, despite the evacuation of the index patient to Switzerland.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has clarified that Nigeria cannot yet be officially declared free of Ebola, despite the medical evacuation of the country’s index patient and her husband to Switzerland.
The Federal Government has identified December 7, 2026, as the earliest possible date for declaring the outbreak over, provided no additional confirmed or probable cases are detected during the required monitoring period.
The clarification comes as Nigerian health authorities continue surveillance of 52 contacts linked to the index patient, strengthen emergency preparedness across several states and coordinate with international partners on efforts to develop vaccines against the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus.
In a statement published on its official X account, WHO described reports suggesting that Nigeria had already been declared Ebola-free as inaccurate and misleading. The organisation explained that although no confirmed Ebola case currently remains within Nigeria’s borders, the outbreak has not officially ended.
WHO Explains the 42-Day Rule
According to WHO, an Ebola outbreak can be declared over only after a prescribed 42-day period has passed without additional confirmed or probable infections. The countdown generally begins after the last confirmed patient tests negative for the virus twice, or under the circumstances outlined for Nigeria, following the evacuation of the confirmed patient.
The 42-day period represents twice the maximum 21-day incubation period of the Ebola virus.
WHO stressed that the absence of confirmed cases following the patient’s evacuation does not automatically satisfy the requirements for ending an outbreak. Health authorities must continue monitoring exposed individuals and maintain enhanced surveillance to identify any possible new infections.
The clarification followed comments by WHO Regional Director for Africa, Mohamed Janabi, who said Nigeria had no remaining confirmed cases after the infected woman and her husband were evacuated.
Janabi explained that Nigerian authorities would continue monitoring 52 contacts, while Switzerland would take responsibility for the patient’s husband, identified as contact number 53.
Some media reports interpreted his remarks as an official declaration that Nigeria had defeated the outbreak, prompting WHO to clarify the distinction between having no remaining confirmed cases and formally ending an outbreak.
Federal Government Sets Conditional December 7 Target
The Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Professor Muhammad Ali Pate, said Nigeria could begin the process of declaring the outbreak over as early as December 7, 2026, if no further confirmed or probable cases emerge.
He noted that the proposed date remains subject to verification by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) and WHO.
Pate warned that the identification of another confirmed or probable infection would require the monitoring countdown to restart, making contact tracing and continuous surveillance essential to preventing further transmission.
He said the government’s immediate priorities include monitoring identified contacts, promptly investigating suspected cases and strengthening preparedness across healthcare facilities.
According to the minister, response teams are working with the Federal Capital Territory Administration, state health authorities and development partners to reduce the risk of further spread within communities.
Index Patient Evacuated After Treatment in Abuja
The 42-year-old index patient, a Swiss citizen, was medically evacuated from Abuja on October 26 alongside her husband after Nigerian medical personnel stabilised her condition and managed the acute phase of her illness.
Pate said the woman was conscious, clinically stable and able to communicate before departure. Laboratory indicators also showed improvement in her condition.
However, he cautioned that clinical improvement did not necessarily mean the patient was no longer infectious, stressing that strict infection-prevention measures remained necessary.
The patient’s husband, who travelled with her on the evacuation aircraft, had remained asymptomatic and tested negative for Ebola.
The NCDC had identified 53 contacts linked to the patient, including healthcare workers, domestic staff and her husband. With Swiss authorities assuming responsibility for monitoring the husband, Nigerian officials will continue following up with the remaining 52 contacts for 21 days from their last possible exposure.
At the time of the report, no secondary infection had been confirmed among the identified contacts. A suspected Ebola case reported in Rivers State on October 23 also returned a negative laboratory result.
Medical Academy Calls for Continued Contact Tracing
The Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has urged the NCDC to intensify contact tracing and ensure that every identified contact completes the required monitoring period.
In a statement signed by its President, Osato Giwa-Osagie, and other officials, the academy emphasised that evacuating the patient did not bring Nigeria’s public health responsibilities to an end.
It called for sustained monitoring of healthcare workers, domestic staff and other individuals who might have been exposed to the virus.
The academy also noted that medical evacuation was permissible under the International Health Regulations, provided appropriate safety procedures were followed. However, it expressed concern that samples from the patient remained positive as of October 25.
While commending Nigerian doctors, nurses, laboratory scientists and public health personnel for stabilising the patient, the academy called for stronger protection of frontline workers, better isolation facilities and transparent communication with the public.
Investigation Examines Possible Link to Kenya Outbreak
According to the NCDC, the index patient arrived in Abuja on October 3 after travelling from Uganda through Addis Ababa. She developed symptoms on October 7 and subsequently sought treatment at private healthcare facilities.
The agency received notification of the suspected infection on October 19, while laboratory tests confirmed Ebola disease caused by the Bundibugyo virus on October 20.
Her symptoms included fever, diarrhoea, generalised body aches and a sore throat, although no bleeding was reported.
Investigations into the possible source of the infection identified a potential connection with the outbreak in Kenya.
Pate disclosed that genomic analysis conducted by the NCDC and the Institute of Genomics and Global Health at Redeemer’s University in Ede, Osun State, showed that the virus detected in Nigeria was closely related to the strain identified in Kenya’s index patient.
However, he cautioned that genetic similarities alone did not establish direct transmission or conclusively explain how the Nigerian patient contracted the virus.
The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is also deploying a team of scientists led by Congolese Ebola expert Jean-Jacques Muyembe to investigate the possible source of the infection.
The investigation will examine whether the Nigerian and Kenyan patients might have crossed paths while travelling through Uganda, and whether their infections originated from a common source or transmission pathway.
States Strengthen Ebola Surveillance and Emergency Preparedness
As federal authorities continue monitoring the outbreak, state governments have introduced or reinforced preventive measures to minimise the risk of further importation and community transmission.
Kebbi State has intensified traveller screening at Sir Ahmadu Bello International Airport in Birnin Kebbi and land border crossings in Bagudo, Kamba and Arewa.
The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Health, Zaki Abubakar Zaki, said passengers were being screened at designated entry and exit points to facilitate the early detection and referral of suspected cases.
He added that personal protective equipment had been distributed to general hospitals to protect healthcare workers, while public health officials continued coordinating surveillance and infection-prevention activities.
Plateau State has reactivated isolation centres, strengthened disease surveillance and expanded public awareness campaigns.
The Commissioner for Health, Nicholas Ba’amlong, said the state’s emergency preparedness team had been directed to review airport safety arrangements and place local government areas bordering neighbouring states on heightened alert.
He urged residents to observe good hygiene, wash their hands regularly and avoid direct contact with the blood and body fluids of people suspected of having Ebola.
Although no Ebola case had been recorded in Plateau State, he said precautionary measures remained necessary.
Yobe State has activated its Public Health Emergency Incident Management System and placed its Emergency Operations Centre on high alert to coordinate surveillance and response activities across all 17 local government areas.
The Commissioner for Health and Human Services, Mohammed Lawan Gana, said isolation and treatment facilities had been identified across the state’s three senatorial zones. Authorities are working to strengthen the facilities with additional medical supplies, protective equipment and staff training.
Surveillance officers have also been directed to investigate suspected infections promptly, while laboratory preparedness is being improved through the provision of sample collection kits and collaboration with the NCDC.
Gana said Yobe had no confirmed Ebola case but was taking precautionary measures to prepare for any possible threat.
Delta State has similarly reviewed its emergency response arrangements, surveillance systems and available resources across its 25 local government areas.
The Commissioner for Health, Joseph Onojaeme, said the government was increasing monitoring at entry points, healthcare facilities and within communities to ensure that suspected infections were detected and investigated without delay.
International Agencies Accelerate Bundibugyo Vaccine Research
Concerns over the Bundibugyo outbreak have also prompted the African Medicines Agency and the European Medicines Agency to issue joint guidance aimed at accelerating clinical trials of potential vaccines.
Following consultations with WHO, the agencies recommended that promising vaccine candidates progress through clinical development without unnecessary delays, while maintaining rigorous scientific evaluation and adequate safeguards for participants.
They also encouraged the development of single-dose vaccines where feasible and proposed a Phase 3 platform trial using a ring-vaccination approach involving close contacts of confirmed cases.
The regulators further recommended including children and pregnant women in clinical studies once sufficient preliminary safety information had been established among adult participants.
They emphasised, however, that regulatory flexibility must not weaken scientific standards or compromise the safety of trial participants.
The announcement coincided with the launch of the Tumaini Phase 2/3 vaccine trial in Bunia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the first participant received a vaccination on October 23.
The trial will evaluate the safety and effectiveness of multiple vaccine candidates against the Bundibugyo virus.
One of the candidates is Ervebo, a vaccine licensed against Ebola disease caused by the Zaire virus. Its effectiveness against the Bundibugyo strain, however, remains unestablished.
No vaccine has yet been approved specifically for Bundibugyo virus disease.
Nigeria Maintains Vigilance as Outbreak Countdown Continues
Nigeria’s immediate priorities remain the completion of contact monitoring, the prompt investigation of suspected infections and continued surveillance at airports, land borders, healthcare facilities and within communities.
Although the evacuation of the index patient has left the country without a confirmed Ebola case within its borders, WHO has reiterated that this does not constitute an official declaration that the outbreak is over.
The country must complete the prescribed monitoring period without additional confirmed or probable cases, with the process subject to validation by the relevant health authorities.
The Federal Government’s target of December 7, 2026, therefore remains conditional on the absence of new infections and compliance with outbreak-closure requirements.
Until those conditions are met, health authorities continue to emphasise vigilance, effective contact tracing, infection prevention and public cooperation to prevent further transmission.
